Italy Set to Regain Top Spot in Global Wine Production with Strong 2025 Harvest

Italy is set to reclaim its position as the world’s leading wine producer in 2025, with an estimated harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters. This figure, released by Assoenologi, ISMEA, and Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), marks an 8% increase over last year’s notably low yield and brings production back in line with the five-year average. The data was compiled with input from the Ministry of Agriculture and regional authorities.

The 2025 harvest is characterized by healthy grapes across most regions, promising a very good to excellent vintage in terms of quality. The improvement follows two challenging years for Italian vineyards, which were affected by adverse weather and lower yields. Italy’s projected output keeps it ahead of France, expected to produce 37.4 million hectoliters, and Spain at 36.8 million.

Weather played a crucial role in shaping this year’s results. Winter provided good water reserves, followed by a mild spring and an early but variable summer. These conditions led to an early start for the harvest in many areas, especially in southern Italy, where the picking season is expected to be long. The South saw the most significant growth, with production up 19% compared to last year. Puglia alone is forecasted to increase by 17%, while Sicily could see a 20% rise. These gains are attributed to spring rainfall that helped vineyards withstand summer heatwaves.

In northern Italy, production also increased but at a slower pace. The Northwest recorded an 8% rise, with Lombardy rebounding by 15% after a difficult 2024, though still below its recent average. The Northeast grew by 3%, led by Friuli-Venezia Giulia (+10%) and Trentino-Alto Adige (+9%). Veneto remains Italy’s top wine-producing region with nearly 12 million hectoliters—about a quarter of the national total—followed by Puglia and Emilia-Romagna.

Central Italy faced more challenges, with overall production down 3%. Tuscany saw a notable drop of 13% after an abundant previous year, while Umbria (+10%) and Marche (+18%) posted gains that were not enough to offset losses elsewhere.

Grape health is reported as good across most regions thanks to careful vineyard management and scientific approaches that have become essential in dealing with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Riccardo Cotarella, president of Assoenologi, noted that while central and northern regions benefited from balanced ripening conditions until heavy rains caused some issues, the South struggled with drought. Despite these contrasts, he emphasized that grape quality is high or even excellent in some areas.

Sergio Marchi, director general of ISMEA, highlighted that both quantity and quality are strong this year, especially in the South. He credited favorable weather and government support for the sector through investments and supply chain contracts.

However, industry leaders warn that high production volumes could create new challenges for the market. Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of UIV, pointed out that with nearly 47.4 million hectoliters produced and another estimated 37 million already in storage from previous years, there is concern about oversupply and its impact on prices and profitability for producers. He called for a review of production regulations to allow more flexibility based on market demand.

On the export front, Italian wine faces headwinds from U.S. tariffs and a saturated global market. Matteo Zoppas, president of ICE (the Italian Trade Agency), reported that while export volumes fell by 4% in the first five months of 2025 compared to last year, export value remained stable at €3.2 billion due to higher average prices. The United States remains a key market for Italian wine despite these challenges.

Within Europe, wine production is also expected to rise slightly this year after two difficult vintages. France will recover partially but remain behind Italy in volume; Spain will see a slight decrease due to climate events affecting yields there.

Market dynamics remain complex as consumer preferences shift and inventories remain high across Europe’s major producing countries. According to ISMEA data, table wines saw a price increase of 4% this year—driven mainly by white wines—while red wines declined slightly. Wines with protected designation (DOC/DOCG) fell by 2%, reflecting weaker demand for reds but some growth for whites.

Supermarket sales data show continued growth for sparkling wines both in volume and value but a slowdown for still wines. Domestic demand remains steady overall.

Looking ahead, industry leaders stress the importance of maintaining quality as a competitive advantage while adapting production strategies to changing market conditions at home and abroad. They also call for continued investment in promotion—especially in key markets like the United States—and greater flexibility in regulatory frameworks to help Italian wine producers navigate an increasingly volatile global environment.

The full report includes detailed regional breakdowns and climate analysis for those seeking further information on Italy’s 2025 vintage outlook.