Global Beer Volumes Are Set to Fall 1%

Global beer volumes are expected to fall by 1% in 2025, but the category is still holding its value as consumers continue to trade up to premium brands and no-alcohol beer gains ground, according to preliminary data from IWSR, the beverage market research firm.

The findings point to a beer market under pressure but not in retreat. In the 21 largest beer markets tracked by IWSR, known as T21, total volume declined last year even as value rose slightly, helped by stronger sales in premium-and-above segments and by growth in nonalcoholic beer. The shift reflects a broader change in drinking habits: fewer servings overall, but more spending on higher-priced products and on alternatives that fit health and wellness trends.

The decline in volume was led by the United States and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest beer markets. Growth came from South Africa and India, while stout posted solid gains in its core markets. IWSR said the premium-plus segment continued to outperform across both developed markets such as Britain, France and Canada and developing markets including South Africa, India and parts of Latin America.

Beer continues to benefit from consumers willing to pay more for upgraded products, especially no-alcohol beer, which has expanded in nearly all of the T21 markets. In 2025, no-alcohol beer volumes rose 8%, compared with a 1% decline for the overall category. The premium-plus share of no-alcohol beer also increased sharply, reaching 29% of volumes in 2025 from 20% in 2019.

The data suggest that brewers are leaning harder into diversification and innovation as they try to protect revenue in a slower market. Some companies are expanding geographically, while others are selling assets or narrowing their portfolios. Asahi has moved into Africa. Tilray acquired BrewDog’s operations in Britain, Ireland, the United States and Australia. Diageo sold its stake in Guinness Ghana Breweries to Castel Group. Heineken divested brewing operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo and has wound down large-scale production in Singapore.

At the same time, brewers are introducing products aimed at changing consumer preferences. Those include flavored beers, no-sugar and low-calorie options, functional drinks and new nonalcoholic offerings that blend beer with soft drinks or emphasize fruit flavors. IWSR said cherry and berry flavors are gaining momentum across beer, spirits and ready-to-drink beverages.

“The fragile state of the market has prompted more restructuring and further diversification beyond beer during the last year,” Roisin Vulcheva, senior beer insights manager at IWSR, said in a statement. “Brand owners are redefining their core with a renewed focus on fewer, stronger brands and smarter distribution.”

Asia remains central to the category’s future because it is the largest beer region by volume, accounting for about one-third of global consumption each year. In China, packaging has become an important way to separate premium beers from standard lines in modern retail channels. Larger formats such as the one-liter can and full-open-top cans have been well received. IWSR consumer research also found that Gen Z drinkers in China are increasingly moving from spirits to beer, with more than 80% reporting that they consume beer.

In India, brewers have used sponsorships of major international sports events to build brand visibility among consumers who follow athletics closely. That strategy has helped premium brands gain traction even as competition intensifies.

But the outlook is being clouded by the crisis in the Middle East, which is affecting both supply chains and demand. IWSR said disruptions linked to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up liquefied natural gas costs, which in turn have raised glass production expenses. Prices for fertilizer, aluminum and carbon dioxide have also increased. Even if conditions improve soon, those cost pressures are likely to continue through 2026 and possibly into 2027.

Higher prices could also weigh on demand, especially in developed markets where structural declines are already under way. The impact is expected to be strongest in bars and restaurants, where rising costs can be passed directly to consumers. Emerging markets may prove more resilient, though price increases could still slow growth.

Martin Belchev, senior econometrician at IWSR, said the current disruption differs from earlier shocks because it combines supply problems with weak consumer sentiment. He said the industry faces “a prolonged period of elevated input costs” and more value-conscious shoppers.

Still, IWSR said beer may be better insulated than wine or spirits because production is often local and supply chains are shorter. That could help limit some of the damage from global shipping volatility. Vulcheva said one possible bright spot is the “affordable treat” occasion, where consumers who cut back on pricier drinks may still choose premium beer as a lower-cost indulgence.

The report’s value figures were calculated using a fixed 2024 exchange rate to reduce distortions from U.S. dollar volatility.