Global wine output stays near a historic low

The global wine sector entered 2025 under continued pressure, with worldwide production estimated at 227 million hectoliters, only 0.6% above the historically low level of 2024, according to an annual report released Tuesday by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine. The group said the third straight year of weak output reflected a mix of climate disruption and production cuts tied to softer demand, while also suggesting that lower-than-average volumes could ease stock pressure rather than trigger broad shortages.

The report, published May 12, said global wine production remained 9.4% below the five-year average. Severe weather again played a central role. Early frosts, heavy rain and prolonged drought affected vineyards in both hemispheres, leaving many major producing regions with uneven results and output below recent norms. In some places, producers also appeared to be scaling back volumes in response to weaker market conditions.

The European Union remained the dominant producing region, accounting for about 60% of global wine output, even as its 2025 production slipped to an estimated 136 million hectoliters, down 1.3% from 2024 and among the lowest levels in decades. The OIV said weather disruptions varied sharply across the bloc. Some vineyards faced drought, heat stress and water shortages, while others dealt with excessive rainfall, storms and disease pressure that damaged vines and complicated harvests.

Italy stayed the world’s largest wine producer at an estimated 44.4 million hectoliters, roughly unchanged from 2024 and close to its recent average, though still below its five-year norm. The OIV said weather conditions were relatively favorable overall, with a mild spring, balanced rainfall and a summer that was not excessively hot. Production gains came mainly from southern regions and modest increases in the north, while central Italy saw a slight decline, including lower volumes in Tuscany. In some denominations, yields were also intentionally limited to manage high stock levels.

France produced an estimated 36.1 million hectoliters, about the same as in 2024 but 16% below its five-year average. The OIV attributed the decline to adverse weather from flowering through harvest across all wine regions. A heat wave and drought in August reduced production potential by speeding grape ripening and limiting growth. Recent grubbing-up campaigns also reduced vineyard area.

Spain remained the third-largest producer globally but saw output fall to 28.7 million hectoliters, down 7.7% from 2024 and 17% below its five-year average. The country endured a third consecutive year of drought and heat waves, which sharply reduced yields and led to one of its smallest harvests in recent decades. Castilla-La Mancha accounted for much of the decline.

Germany’s production fell to 7.6 million hectoliters, down 2.6% from 2024, as hot and dry conditions during the growing season limited yields before heavy rain during harvest further affected volumes. Portugal recorded 6 million hectoliters, down 14% from the previous year and its lowest level since 2011, after swings from record rainfall to intense heat fueled disease outbreaks and drought stress.

Elsewhere in Europe, Romania produced 3.3 million hectoliters, up 3.7% from 2024 but still well below its five-year average after late frosts, hailstorms and uneven water availability affected vineyards. Hungary reached 3 million hectoliters, up 10%, helped by dry summer weather that supported a healthy crop despite regional differences. Austria posted one of its strongest results in years at 2.5 million hectoliters, up 17.5%, with favorable weather helping restore yields to their highest level since 2018.

Greece recovered somewhat after two very small vintages, producing 1.6 million hectoliters, up 16.8% from 2024, though output remained far below historical levels.

Outside the European Union, Russia produced an estimated 5.7 million hectoliters, up 11.5% from last year and above its five-year average as domestic production gained ground amid changes in trade and policy conditions. Georgia reported a record 2.6 million hectoliters, its largest crop in three decades and up 5% from an already strong 2024 harvest. Moldova’s output jumped to 1.8 million hectoliters, up 53.1%, its highest level since 2018 after favorable spring rains improved soil moisture.

In Asia, China’s production fell to an estimated 2.2 million hectoliters, down 17.8% from the previous year as domestic demand remained weak and the industry continued a long contraction from its peak more than a decade ago.

The United States produced an estimated 20 million hectoliters in 2025, down 5.3% from last year and 16.2% below its five-year average. The OIV linked the decline to softer demand that has pressured prices and margins and encouraged more cautious production decisions, especially in California.

The Southern Hemisphere showed signs of recovery after two weak vintages, with total output rising to about 49 million hectoliters, up 7.7% from 2024 but still below its five-year average. Australia produced an estimated 11.3 million hectoliters, up 8.8%, making it the region’s largest producer this year despite remaining slightly below average.

New Zealand posted one of its strongest harvests ever at an estimated 3.7 million hectoliters, up 31.5% from frost-hit 2024 and more than 15% above its five-year average.

In South America, Argentina produced about 10.8 million hectoliters, roughly flat with last year and near its five-year average. Chile fell to 8.4 million hectoliters, down nearly10% from last year and at its lowest level since 2007 after four straight years of decline tied to water scarcity and climate volatility.

Brazil rebounded sharply to an estimated 2.8 million hectoliters after a very low harvest in 2024, while South Africa reached about10.2 million hectoliters, up16.2% from last year as mild weather supported healthier vines and better ripening across major growing areas.

The OIV’s top producers for 2025 were Italy at44.4 million hectoliters; France at36.1 million; Spain at28.7 million; the United States at20 million; Australia at11.3 million; Argentina at10.8 million; South Africa at10.2 million; Chile at8.4 million; Germany at7.6 million; and Portugal at6 million hectares?