Global wine consumption falls to a 2025 low

Global wine consumption fell to an estimated 208 million hectolitres in 2025, extending a decline that has left wineries facing a smaller market, weaker channel growth and more pressure to protect margin rather than chase volume, according to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine.

The OIV said consumption was down 2.7% from 2024 and about 14% below 2018 levels. At the same time, global wine exports slipped to 94.8 million hectolitres in 2025, while export value fell 6.7% to €33.8 billion as tariff uncertainty, softer demand and climate-related costs weighed on trade. The data point to a structural slowdown rather than a short-term correction.

What has changed most is where wine value is being created. During the pandemic, supermarkets, specialist retailers, ecommerce and direct-to-consumer sales absorbed demand that had shifted away from restaurants and bars. That lift has faded. IWSR said the share of wine buyers purchasing online has fallen from its lockdown peak and that global wine ecommerce value declined 6% in 2023. NIQ said off-premise declines remain persistent across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, while on-premise recovery has been uneven and tied more to occasion and geography than to broad volume growth. Euromonitor said global on-trade alcoholic-drinks volumes in 2023 were still 10% below five years earlier.

For wineries, the implication is that channel management is no longer just a distribution issue. It is now a question of customer economics, pricing power and portfolio design. The businesses holding up better are those concentrating on higher-value price tiers, using tasting rooms and wine clubs as loyalty engines, simplifying their assortments and reducing dependence on any one retailer, wholesaler or export market.

SVB’s 2026 U.S. wine report found that tasting rooms and wine clubs account for 53% of the average winery’s sales, with some regions deriving as much as 78% of revenue from direct-to-consumer channels. Free the Grapes, citing SVB data, said wineries with about 70% of business in DTC channels are profitable, compared with materially lower DTC mixes.

The broader market data show how far the industry has moved from its pre-pandemic baseline. OIV figures show global consumption at 236 million hectolitres in 2019, then 231 million in 2020, 234 million in 2021, 229 million in 2022, 222 million in 2023, 214 million in 2024 and 208 million in 2025. Reuters reported last year that global wine consumption in 2023 was already 7.5% below 2018.

The regional picture is uneven but points in the same direction. Europe remained the largest market by far in 2025, with the European Union accounting for 100.6 million hectolitres, or 48% of world demand. France, Italy and Germany all declined, while Portugal and Romania held up better than many peers. NIQ said nearly half of Europeans are going out less often than before and almost one-third have less money to spend when they do. Euromonitor said Western Europe’s on-trade remains below pre-pandemic levels and that modern grocery dominates distribution in most markets.

In North America, U.S. consumption fell to 31.9 million hectolitres in 2025 and Canada to 2.8 million. Sovos ShipCompliant and WineBusiness Analytics said U.S. DTC wine shipments fell 15% in volume and 6% in value in 2025, even as Napa performed better than the national average.

Latin America showed more mixed results. Argentina fell to 7.5 million hectolitres in 2025, while Brazil rose to a record 4.4 million. Euromonitor said the region recovered quickly after the pandemic but weakened under inflationary pressure before returning to growth in parts of the market.

Asia-Pacific remained volatile. China fell again to 4.8 million hectolitres in 2025, Japan rose to 3.3 million and Australia eased to 5.3 million. IWSR said China is no longer a broad-based volume solution for exporters and that future growth is more likely to come from premium niches, tourism and younger urban consumers buying through digital channels.

Africa and the Middle East remained smaller but strategically important for tourism and export diversification. South Africa stayed the region’s largest wine market at 4.0 million hectolitres in 2025. Euromonitor said specialists remain the main distribution channel there and ecommerce is still limited.

The pressure on off-premise sales comes from several directions at once. The first is the unwinding of pandemic-era distortions that pushed more alcohol into home consumption and online ordering. NIQ recorded a sharp rise in off-premise wine sales during early lockdown periods in Europe, including a jump of more than 44% in Spain in one April 2020 comparison.

The second is moderation among younger drinkers and stronger competition from other beverage categories. IWSR said moderation is most pronounced among legal-drinking-age Gen Z wine drinkers: 67% say they have reduced alcohol consumption, compared with 61% of Millennials, 49% of Gen X and 43% of Boomers.

The third is inflation meeting consumer price sensitivity. OIV linked recent declines partly to high average prices caused by low production, past inflation, trade disruptions and weaker purchasing power. Global production fell to a low not seen in more than six decades in 2024 at 225.8 million hectolitres and remained subdued at about 227 million hectolitres in 2025.

Retail buyers are also narrowing assortments more aggressively. NIQ said SKU rationalization has accelerated since 2024 across beverage alcohol, leaving middle-tier brands squeezed between low-price competition and premium labels with stronger brand pull.

Digital sales are still growing as a channel for discovery even if they are no longer expanding as fast as they did during lockdowns. IWSR expects online alcohol sales to exceed $36 billion by 2028, with growth led by markets including the United States, Japan, Australia, Brazil and Italy. But it said digital now functions less as a substitute for physical retail than as a research and data channel: about two-thirds of online alcohol buyers do extensive research before purchase.

That shift helps explain why wineries are leaning harder on direct relationships with consumers rather than pure transaction volume.

Treasury Wine Estates reported stronger profit growth in fiscal year 2025 after leaning into premium brands such as Penfolds, but later withdrew guidance for fiscal year 2026 amid weak Penfolds demand in China and disruption tied to U.S. distribution changes.

Sula Vineyards in India said wine tourism revenue reached its highest quarterly level ever in fiscal year 2025’s third quarter and grew again in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 as visitor traffic rose above previous levels; it also said premium brands made up nearly three-quarters of its mix.

Chapel Down in Britain has continued to build around winery events and hospitality-led engagement as grocery growth remains limited.

Viña Concha y Toro reported higher revenue for fiscal year 2025 even as mainstream volume remained under pressure, helped by premium-and-above brands.

Australian Vintage has moved toward no-alcohol wines such as McGuigan Zero as it looks for adjacent growth beyond traditional retail exposure.

Willamette Valley Vineyards has emphasized tasting rooms, club membership and participatory experiences as central parts of its business model.

At the other end of the spectrum, Vintage Wine Estates entered bankruptcy proceedings last year after building a complex acquisition-led structure that proved vulnerable as demand softened.

A separate analysis of Napa County wineries found that shipment value rose slightly even as volume fell last year, while wineries outside Napa saw much steeper declines.

South Africa Wine said tourism accounted for more than17% of average winery turnover in 2024, up from15% in2019, underscoring how destination visits can support revenue when domestic retail is weak.

For winery operators planning through2030,the strategic choices are becoming clearer: simplify portfolios,rebuild clubs,use tasting rooms as commercial engines rather than branding exercises,rebalance export exposure,and tie digital spending to first-party customer data instead of relying on broad online traffic alone.

The likely outcome is not a return to the channel mix that existed before2019,but a smaller market where value accrues more heavily to wineries with stronger brands,better customer retention,and more control over how they reach buyers across retail,hospitality,and direct channels